A mother and child at an emergency feeding centre in Tahoua, Niger, photographed by Finbarr O’Reilly.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPC) has released another report on climate change, this one by Working Group II, and called Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. As The Guardian summarises:

“Water availability
By 2050 wet areas such as the tropics and high latitude countries will get 10%-40% wetter. Dry and drought affected areas such as sub-Saharan Africa will see less rainfall and get 10%-30% drier.

Ecosystems
Report warns that temperature rise of 1.5C-2.5C means “20%-30% of plant and animal species assessed so far are likely to be at increased risk of extinction”. Earlier drafts said they would face “high risk of irreversible extinction”.

Food
Some crop yields, such as cereals, could initially increase at mid to high latitudes, but start to decrease in some areas once temperatures climb by more than 3C.

Coasts
Globally there will be increased damage from flooding and erosion, and effects will be worsened by “human-induced” pressures on coastal areas.

The draft is softened because government representatives demanded it right up to a in a tense all night meeting to reach the deadline.

“Scientists said China, Russia and Saudi Arabia raised most objections overnight and sought to tone down the findings, including those about the likely pace of extinctions.

Other participants said the United States, which cited high costs when it pulled out of Kyoto, had opposed a suggested text that said parts of North America could suffer “severe economic damage” from climate change.

China, the second largest source of greenhouse gases after the United States, insisted on cutting a reference to “very high confidence” that climate change was already affecting “many natural systems, on all continents and in some oceans”.

But delegates sharpened other sections, including adding a warning that some African nations might have to spend 5 to 10 percent of gross domestic product on adapting to climate change.”

This is terrifying. While the US has been actively vandalistic of the Kyoto agreement, we at least know that democracy and the worsening climate will ultimately force a change. The Australian government is easy to pressure when push needs to come to shove. But the Russians and Chinese are vast economies, too big to intimidate, which will ultimately produce titanic amounts of CO2. How on earth can we possibly stop them?

The summary for policymakers is an appalling document. This is what it says about existing changes:

“Observational evidence from all continents and most oceans shows that many natural systems are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly temperature increases.
With regard to changes in snow, ice and frozen ground (including permafrost), there is high confidence that natural systems are affected. Examples are:
• enlargement and increased numbers of glacial lakes;
• increasing ground instability in permafrost regions, and rock avalanches in mountain regions;
• changes in some Arctic and Antarctic ecosystems, including those in sea-ice biomes, and also
predators high in the food chain.

Based on growing evidence, there is high confidence that the following types of hydrological systems are
being affected around the world:
• increased run-off and earlier spring peak discharge in many glacier- and snow-fed rivers;
• warming of lakes and rivers in many regions, with effects on thermal structure and water quality.

There is very high confidence, based on more evidence from a wider range of species, that recent warming is strongly affecting terrestrial biological systems, including such changes as:
• earlier timing of spring events, such as leaf-unfolding, bird migration and egg-laying;
• poleward and upward shifts in ranges in plant and animal species.

Based on satellite observations since the early 1980s, there is high confidence that there has been a trend in
many regions towards earlier ‘greening’5 of vegetation in the spring linked to longer thermal growing seasons due to recent warming.

There is high confidence, based on substantial new evidence, that observed changes in marine and freshwater biological systems are associated with rising water temperatures, as well as related changes in ice cover, salinity, oxygen levels and circulation. These include:
• shifts in ranges and changes in algal, plankton and fish abundance in high-latitude oceans;
• increases in algal and zooplankton abundance in high-latitude and high-altitude lakes;
• range changes and earlier migrations of fish in rivers.

The uptake of anthropogenic carbon since 1750 has led to the ocean becoming more acidic with an average
decrease in pH of 0.1 units [IPCC Working Group I Fourth Assessment]. However, the effects of observed
ocean acidification on the marine biosphere are as yet undocumented.

Children in a slum in Telipok, 40 kilometers outside of Kota Kinabalu. Children who possess documents are able to attend private schools and some public primary level schools. Those who don’t are shut out of most public programs. Photo by Greg Constantine.

So what is happening to us, in Australia and New Zealand?

“As a result of reduced precipitation and increased evaporation, water security problems are projected to intensify by 2030 in southern and eastern Australia and, in New Zealand, in Northland and some eastern regions.

Significant loss of biodiversity is projected to occur by 2020 in some ecologically-rich sites including the
Great Barrier Reef and Queensland Wet Tropics. Other sites at risk include Kakadu wetlands, south-west
Australia, sub-Antarctic islands and the alpine areas of both countries.

Ongoing coastal development and population growth in areas such as Cairns and Southeast Queensland
(Australia) and Northland to Bay of Plenty (New Zealand), are projected to exacerbate risks from sea-level
rise and increases in the severity and frequency of storms and coastal flooding by 2050.

Production from agriculture and forestry by 2030 is projected to decline over much of southern and eastern
Australia, and over parts of eastern New Zealand, due to increased drought and fire. However, in New
Zealand, initial benefits to agriculture and forestry are projected in western and southern areas and close to
major rivers due to a longer growing season, less frost and increased rainfall.

The region has substantial adaptive capacity due to well-developed economies and scientific and technical
capabilities, but there are considerable constraints to implementation and major challenges from changes in
extreme events. Natural systems have limited adaptive capacity.

As the IPPC staff have pointed out, the effects will mostly be felt by populations which are already poor and vulnerable. Here are some details about Africa, for instance:

“By 2020, between 75 and 250 million people are projected to be exposed to an increase of water stress due to climate change…. Agricultural production, including access to food, in many African countries and regions is projected to be severely compromised by climate variability and change. .. In some countries, yields from rain-fed agriculture could be reduced by up to 50% by 2020. … Local food supplies are projected to be negatively affected by decreasing fisheries resources in large lakes … Towards the end of the 21st century, projected sea-level rise will affect low-lying coastal areas with large populations.”

And the Australian government response? While Rudd calls for an Australian version of the Sterne Report to assess the economic implications of climate change..

“Federal Environment Minister Malcolm Turnbull said the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report was important but nothing new.

Mr Turnbull, in Washington DC promoting the federal government’s global deforestation initiative, said the findings of the report were already known, and the government’s environment and water policies reflect that knowledge.

“The science in this report is important but it is not new,” Mr Turnbull said in a statement released in Canberra.

“It brings together existing scientific research, including the Australian research funded by the government…which has underpinned our climate change policy response over the last decade,” he said.

Opposition environment spokesman Peter Garrett said it was “extraordinary” Mr Turnbull said there was nothing new in the report.

“It’s clear from what this report tells us that we need to act urgently and we need to act now – something the Howard government and the environment minister still refuse to acknowledge,” he said.”

Sorry Malcolm, you are not going to save the coal industry. And it surely ain’t worth the biosphere.

The photos are Reuters and IHT images posted during the week of 7th of April. The last picture is Australian – an image of drought used by Der Spiegel in its sombre assessment of climate change.

If you want to see a truly cretinous collection of pseudo-experts proclaiming their superiority over climate scientists, check the comments in response to an innocuous BBC question about the effect of climate change on people’s lives. The remarks from the Third Word are chilling – “Change of climate and draught has already badly affected million people’s life in Afghanistan..” from Kabul; “Being on the lower Himalayan ranges, there was a time when this beautiful hill station received over 4ft of snow during winter. But global warming has taken such a heavy toll on this town, that the amount of snowfall received for the past 10 years has not even been 2ft per year and last year it was the worst as there was no snow at all..” from Himachal Pradesh; “Currently it is so hot than never before,because forests are being depleted very fast, swamps are being drained in the name of investors.bbc the biggest forest in africa is on the verge of being destroyed for planting sugar cane. Can you imagine lake victoria levels are also falling very fast that very soon it may dry up and government is doing nothing” from Kampala.

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